Argus, a leading commodity analysis firm, has revised its forecast for Russian wheat production in the upcoming year to 92.1 million metric tons. This updated projection reflects an increase in the estimate for the winter wheat area, which compensates for less favorable prospects related to spring wheat planting and yields.
Initially projected at 90 million tons in November, the new forecast positions Russia for the second-largest wheat crop volume on record, following a peak in 2022/23. This outlook sets the country on track to maintain total wheat supply, including stocks, above 100 million tons for the third consecutive season, according to Argus.
The abundance in supply has solidified Russia’s position as the world’s leading wheat exporter, with expectations of achieving record shipments for a second consecutive season in 2023/24 despite challenges posed by the conflict in Ukraine and state intervention in grain export policies.
Multiple analysts anticipate that Russian wheat output will surpass 90 million tons this year. The increased winter wheat planting for the upcoming harvest, as indicated by official data and farmer surveys, has offset minor reductions in yield expectations, aligning closely with last year’s levels.
Argus highlighted the significance of timely rainfall following a dry period in February-March, emphasizing the urgent need for precipitation over the next few weeks to support crop development. Additionally, due to diminished profit margins for wheat in recent months, farmers may opt to plant less spring wheat, favoring alternative crops that offer higher returns.
The updated production forecast for the 2024/25 crop, shared with clients last week, comprises 67.7 million tons of winter wheat and 24.4 million tons of spring wheat. Notably, Argus excludes Crimea and other annexed regions of Ukraine from its Russian crop forecasts.