The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has released its initial weekly crop progress report for the 2024 growing season, evaluating 56% of the U.S. winter wheat crop as being in good-to-excellent condition. While this figure falls below the average trade expectations, it represents the highest rating for this time of year since 2019.
Despite the winter wheat harvest still being several months away, the improved crop outlook highlights a shift in global grain supplies from scarcity to surplus, following years of shortages due to adverse weather conditions, the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Comparatively, last year saw only 28% of the U.S. crop rated as good-to-excellent in the 13th week of the calendar year amid drought conditions in the southern Plains region.
In 2020, the USDA’s initial winter wheat ratings, released in the 14th week of the year, indicated that 62% of the crop was rated as good to excellent. Analysts surveyed by Reuters had anticipated the USDA to rate around 57% of the current wheat crop as good-to-excellent, with estimates ranging from 48% to 65%. The upcoming U.S. winter wheat harvest, sown last autumn, is scheduled for June and July.
Concurrently, farmers have commenced planting spring crops, with corn planting at 2% completion and spring wheat planting at 1%, aligning with or slightly deviating from analyst projections and historical averages.