Ghana and Ivory Coast, long-standing cocoa powerhouses responsible for over 60% of global cocoa supply, are grappling with dire harvests, leading to expectations of cocoa bean shortages and a surge in chocolate prices. New York cocoa futures have more than doubled this year, setting record highs amid an ongoing trend fueled by a combination of factors including illegal gold mining, climate change, disease outbreaks, and sector mismanagement.
Ghana’s cocoa marketing board, Cocobod, has revealed alarming data indicating the spread of swollen shoot virus across 590,000 hectares of cocoa plantations since 2018, posing a significant threat to cocoa production. Cocoa experts warn of a long-term decline in production, with Ghana experiencing its lowest crop levels in two decades and Ivory Coast facing an eight-year low. This crisis has raised concerns about the potential end of West Africa’s dominance in cocoa production, potentially creating opportunities for emerging producers in Latin America.
The repercussions of the cocoa crisis extend beyond West African farmers to consumer markets, with chocolate prices already surging by over 10% in the United States compared to a year ago. Analysts anticipate further price increases as chocolate manufacturers, who typically hedge cocoa purchases in advance, grapple with the impact of reduced cocoa supplies later this year.
As a result, consumers may face higher prices for chocolate products, transforming once-affordable treats into luxury items due to the escalating costs associated with cocoa production and supply chain disruptions.