The Lunar New Year holiday period typically witnesses a surge in metal inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE), with copper, aluminium, lead, and nickel experiencing notable fluctuations in registered stocks recently. While many metal fabricators halt operations during the holiday, smelters continue production, leading to an increase in visible inventory levels. This year, copper has notably recorded the most significant seasonal stock build, reaching levels not seen since 2020. In comparison, zinc and aluminium have shown more subdued inventory changes in line with historical patterns. Nickel stocks have surged to four-year highs, while tin inventories have reached record levels since the launch of the ShFE tin contract in 2015. The rise in exchange stocks can be attributed to a combination of robust domestic production growth and increased imports, with refined copper output in China rising by 9.0% year-on-year. Despite fluctuations in metal inventories, visible inventory levels remain relatively low, underscoring the tight domestic market conditions and ongoing global trade dynamics impacting metal stocks.
Seasonal Trends Impact Shanghai Metal Inventories Across Various Metals