Grain trade association Coceral revised down its soft wheat output forecast for the European Union and the United Kingdom by 5.4 million metric tons for the 2024 harvest, attributing the reduction to damage caused by excessive rainfall in the region. The latest projection places the expected soft wheat harvest at 134.1 million tons, a decline from the initial estimate of 139.5 million tons in December and 4% lower than the previous year’s production of 140.0 million tons.
The significant impact of record rainfall towards the end of last year severely affected winter cereal sowing, particularly in northwestern Europe encompassing countries like France, Germany, the UK, Baltics, and Poland, as highlighted by Coceral in a statement. In contrast, Spain is anticipated to witness a considerable increase in soft wheat production following challenges posed by drought conditions in 2023.
Coceral also adjusted its forecast for barley production in the EU and UK to 61.2 million tons, up from 58.6 million tons projected in December, with improved crop expectations in countries such as Denmark, Finland, and Spain compared to the previous year.
Moreover, the corn crop forecast was raised to 64.3 million tons from 63.7 million, indicating a nearly 3% increase from the 2023 harvest of 62.5 million tons.
In the oilseeds sector, Coceral anticipates the rapeseed crop in the EU and UK to reach 20.2 million tons in 2024, slightly lower than the previous forecast of 20.3 million tons and a decrease from the 2023 production of 21.3 million tons.
The adjustments in crop forecasts underscore the ongoing challenges faced by agricultural producers in adapting to adverse weather conditions and their implications on crop yields across different regions in the EU and UK.