The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has shifted its approach to estimating China’s soybean imports by incorporating data from global exporters. This adjustment in methodology follows a significant discrepancy between shipping figures reported by producing nations and Chinese customs data, prompting the USDA to revise its estimates to align with exporters’ data.
The timing of this methodological change is crucial amid ongoing U.S.-China relations and China’s efforts to enhance its food security strategies by reducing reliance on imports. Given China’s status as the world’s largest soybean importer, accurate tracking of its demand is essential for shaping global commodity prices.
Joanna Hitchner, responsible for soybean supply and demand estimates at USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board, highlighted the divergence between Chinese customs data traditionally used by the USDA and export data from major producers like the U.S. and Brazil. As discrepancies emerged in 2023, the USDA adjusted its estimate for China’s 2022-2023 soybean imports by 3.6% in March based on exporters’ data.
While the preference remains for Chinese customs data, the USDA will continue to monitor the trade gap to assess the feasibility of reverting to using reported import data from China. The reliability of Chinese import data has long been a subject of scrutiny, with market analysts suggesting potential under-reporting to bolster domestic food security initiatives.
The recent downward revision of soybean import volumes by China for January-February 2023, from 16.17 million tons to 14.3 million tons, underscores the evolving nature of import data discrepancies. Notably, China’s revisions have intensified as they made significant adjustments to their import figures, leading to heightened divergence between exporters’ shipping data and Chinese import statistics.
In addition to revising import estimates, the USDA has increased its projections for China’s soybean crush from 2020-2021 to 2022-2023 following an extensive review of in-country estimates and supply data. Hitchner emphasized that methodological changes are carefully considered, reflecting a deliberate approach to aligning estimates with evolving market dynamics and data discrepancies.
As uncertainties persist regarding the accuracy of Chinese import data, the USDA’s adoption of a revised estimation method underscores the importance of ensuring transparency and reliability in tracking key agricultural commodities like soybeans, critical for informing global trade patterns and market trends.