Chicago wheat futures remained relatively stable on Friday, poised for a third consecutive weekly decline due to pressure from Chinese buyers canceling shipments amidst ample global supplies. In contrast, corn prices saw a slight increase, while soybeans experienced a decline in trading.
The prevailing market conditions, characterized by abundant supplies, have exerted downward pressure on prices, with Chinese importers notably canceling or delaying wheat shipments from Australia and the U.S. in March due to declining prices, as highlighted in a report from BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions. The most-active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) maintained its position at $5.32-1/4 per bushel, while corn prices rose by 0.3% to $4.35 per bushel and soybeans dipped by 0.1% to $11.94-1/2 per bushel.
Over the course of the week, wheat has experienced a 1% decline, marking a cumulative loss of 6.5% over three weeks, while corn prices have decreased by 1.1%. In contrast, soybeans have seen a marginal increase of nearly 1%.
The cancellation or postponement of approximately one million metric tons of Australian wheat shipments by Chinese importers, coupled with similar actions involving U.S. wheat exports, has raised concerns among exporters regarding the growing surplus in the global wheat market. This trend underscores the broader impact of rising world stockpiles on market dynamics and pricing trends.
Forecasts from Russia’s IKAR agricultural consultancy suggest an anticipated grain crop of 147 million metric tons for the 2024/25 season, with wheat production estimated at 93 million tons. These projections represent an increase from the previous year’s harvest figures, signaling continued growth in grain output.
The International Grains Council has also projected a record global grain crop for the 2024/25 season, with production expected to reach 2.332 billion metric tons, up from the previous season’s 2.304 billion metric tons. This outlook underscores concerns surrounding a potential global surplus in grains.
In Argentina, favorable soil moisture conditions have boosted soybean plantings, with 77% of plantings reported to have optimal-to-excellent moisture levels following recent rainfall, as indicated by the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange.
Market activity reflected commodity funds’ positions as net buyers of CBOT soybean and soymeal futures contracts, while they were net sellers of corn, wheat, and soyoil contracts on Thursday.
The evolving dynamics in the wheat, corn, and soybean markets underscore the impact of supply pressures and global trends on commodity pricing, highlighting the interplay between supply-demand dynamics and external factors influencing market sentiment.