The Energy Information Agency (EIA) predicts that in 2024, the growth in global oil and liquids production will be spearheaded by non-OPEC+ countries such as the U.S., Guyana, Canada, and Brazil. This surge in supply is set to counterbalance the voluntary production cuts agreed upon by OPEC+ members. Despite OPEC+’s efforts to stabilize the market by extending output cuts, the rise in production from non-OPEC+ nations poses a challenge, especially amidst concerns over global demand growth and increased supplies.
According to the EIA, OPEC+ petroleum liquids production is projected to decrease by 1 million barrels per day in 2024, while non-OPEC+ producers are expected to increase their output by 1.4 million barrels per day, with the U.S. leading the pack. Looking ahead to 2025, OPEC+ production is anticipated to rise by 900,000 barrels per day as production cuts expire, while non-OPEC+ output is forecasted to grow by an additional 1.1 million barrels per day.
In 2023, global petroleum and liquids supply stood at 101.8 million barrels per day, with projections indicating a slight increase of 400,000 barrels per day in 2024 and a more substantial growth of 2 million barrels per day in 2025.