The Ukrainian grain traders union UGA has projected a decline in Ukraine’s combined grain and oilseed harvest for 2024, estimating it to decrease to 76.1 million metric tons from 82.6 million tons in the previous year and significantly lower than the 107 million tons recorded before the Russian invasion. The anticipated harvest is expected to comprise approximately 26.3 million tons of corn, 20 million tons of wheat, and 13.7 million tons of sunflower seeds. Ukraine, a key global producer and exporter of grains and oilseeds, has experienced diminishing harvests since the Russian invasion in February 2022, leading to a notable reduction in agricultural output. The potential decrease in the upcoming season’s harvest is attributed to reduced sown areas, particularly for grain crops, influenced by unfavorable global pricing conditions and high export logistics costs. The UGA highlighted concerns over deteriorating expectations for the corn harvest due to a potential reduction in planting areas, driven by low purchase prices influenced by global market trends. In contrast, soybeans are identified as a crop with potential for increased cultivation due to profitability prospects. The projected decline in output is anticipated to impact export volumes for the 2024/25 season, with estimates indicating a decrease to 43.7 million tons from the expected 53.1 million tons for the current season. The UGA outlined export projections for various commodities, including corn, wheat, soybeans, rape seeds, and other oilseeds and cereals, reflecting the evolving landscape of Ukraine’s agricultural sector amidst challenging market conditions and geopolitical factors.
UGA Forecasts Decrease in Ukraine’s 2024 Grain and Oilseed Harvest to 76.1 Million Tons