According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. natural gas production is set to decrease in 2024 while demand is projected to reach a record high. The EIA’s Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) revealed that dry gas production is expected to drop from a peak of 103.79 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2023 to 103.35 bcfd in 2024. This decline comes as some producers scale back drilling activities following a drop in natural gas prices earlier this year. However, the EIA anticipates a rebound in production to 104.43 bcfd in 2025. Concurrently, domestic gas consumption is forecasted to increase from 89.09 bcfd in 2023 to 89.68 bcfd in 2024 before slightly decreasing to 89.21 bcfd in 2025 due to rising prices. If these projections hold true, 2024 would mark the first output decline since 2020, attributed to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on fuel demand. Additionally, it would signify the first consecutive four-year rise in demand since 2016. The EIA’s latest estimates for 2024 differ from their previous February forecast, with lower figures for both supply and demand. The agency also foresees a rise in U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, reaching 12.34 bcfd in 2024 and 14.43 bcfd in 2025, surpassing the record set in 2023. Furthermore, coal production is expected to decrease significantly, while carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are projected to decline as coal use diminishes and alternative energy sources gain prominence.
US Natural Gas Production to Decline in 2024 as Demand Hits Record High, EIA Reports