The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange has forecasted a shift towards reduced rainfall in Argentina as the El Nino weather phenomenon weakens, paving the way for a drier autumn and the potential emergence of a La Nina climate pattern, impacting the country’s farmlands.
Argentina, a significant global food exporter, has experienced a productive 2023/24 season supported by above-average rainfall attributed to El Nino.
As El Nino enters its dissipation phase, a transition to a new climate phase is expected, as outlined in the exchange’s monthly climate report. The recent plentiful rains have been beneficial for soybean and corn crops currently in development stages, with harvests commencing in April. Concurrently, the planting of wheat, a key crop for Argentina’s 2024/25 season, is scheduled to begin in May.
While El Nino has provided advantages, the potential onset of La Nina could bring cooler and drier conditions, contrasting with the precipitation abundance associated with El Nino. Argentina faced severe drought conditions in the 2022/23 season under La Nina’s influence, marking the driest period on record.
The exchange’s projections estimate Argentina’s 2023/24 soybean production at 52.5 million metric tons, with corn output anticipated at 56.5 million tons. The agricultural sector will closely monitor the evolving weather patterns and their impact on crop development as the transition from El Nino to La Nina unfolds.