Australia’s agriculture ministry anticipates a rise in winter wheat production to 28.4 million metric tons for the 2024/25 season, up from 26 million tons in the recently concluded harvest, supported by wetter weather conditions. The ministry also projects increased barley and canola production, signaling positive prospects for the country’s agricultural output.
As one of the world’s leading exporters of wheat and agricultural commodities, Australia’s enhanced winter crop yields are expected to bolster global supply levels. The 2023/24 winter crops were initially impacted by dry conditions attributed to an El Nino weather event. However, recent summer rains and the diminishing El Nino have improved the agricultural outlook.
Emily Dahl, an economist at the agriculture ministry’s forecasting division, highlighted the favorable soil moisture conditions and anticipated an expansion in winter crop planting, particularly in Queensland and New South Wales. The ministry foresees exports in the upcoming season surpassing long-term averages.
Barley production is projected to increase to 11.6 million tons in 2024/25 from 10.8 million tons in the previous season, while canola output is expected to grow to 6.1 million tons from 5.7 million tons. The total winter crop production is estimated to rise by 9% to reach 51 million metric tons in the 2024/25 season.
With winter crops typically planted from April and harvested from October in Australia, the shift from El Nino to a potential La Nina weather phenomenon later in the year could further enhance agricultural yields. The ministry remains optimistic about the upside potential of Australian crop yields with the prospect of wetter conditions under a La Nina phase.