Analysts have noted that amidst continued Houthi militant attacks in the Red Sea, grain ships originating from the Black Sea or en route to Iran remain some of the sole vessels navigating through the troubled waters. The attacks have significantly impacted global shipping operations since November, compelling companies to opt for longer and costlier routes around southern Africa to avoid the risks associated with the Red Sea passage.
Ishan Bhanu, lead agricultural commodities analyst at data provider and analysts Kpler, highlighted that most dry bulk grain vessels from the Americas and western Europe are circumventing the Red Sea, with exceptions being shipments bound for Iran opting for the shorter Red Sea route. Additionally, Bhanu noted that vessels traveling from the Black Sea to Asia predominantly continue to utilize the Red Sea route for transit.
The disruption caused by the attacks is evident in the significant decrease in grain transit through the Suez Canal, with estimates indicating a decline to 2.6 million metric tons in February from 5.3 million tons in February 2023.
In response to the escalating tensions, the United States and other nations have deployed naval vessels to safeguard civilian ships, with air strikes launched by the U.S. and UK targeting Houthi forces. Despite these efforts, challenges persist as Houthi attacks persist, posing threats to commercial shipping activities.
While military operations and protective measures are ongoing, some ship owners are willing to accept the risks associated with Red Sea sailings. Recent transactions, such as Chinese purchases of Ukrainian corn, are anticipated to necessitate transit through the Red Sea, reflecting ongoing complexities in global shipping operations amidst regional tensions.